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Evidence & Research

Primary Endpoint

Definition

The single outcome a trial was designed and powered to answer, fixed before data collection. Secondary endpoints are informative and are not what the trial succeeded or failed on, a distinction that press releases regularly blur.

Where this term comes up

Entries whose definition mentions Primary Endpoint.

What this means for research sourcing

Understanding evidence quality helps researchers prioritize compounds. Volta's research library summarizes the literature behind stocked compounds.

Related Terms in Evidence & Research

Biomarker

A measurable indicator standing in for a process, a disease state or a response. Serum IGF-1 is the usual biomarker in growth hormone secretagogue work, and a biomarker moving is not the same as an outcome improving.

HbA1c (Glycated Hemoglobin)

A blood measure reflecting average glucose over roughly the preceding two to three months, reported as a percentage. It is the standard primary endpoint in metabolic trials, which is why a result quoted in points of HbA1c appears in almost every incretin paper.

Effect Size

How large the difference an intervention produced actually was, in real units or as a standardised measure. Once significance is established this is the only question left that matters.

Statistical Significance

A judgement that a result is unlikely to have arisen by chance under the null hypothesis, conventionally at p below 0.05. It says nothing whatever about whether the difference is big enough to care about.

p-Value

The probability of seeing a result at least as extreme as the one observed if the null hypothesis were true. Below 0.05 is the convention for significance, and it is not the probability that the hypothesis is wrong.

Confidence Interval

The range of values compatible with the data at a stated level, usually 95%. A wide interval means an imprecise estimate however striking the central figure looks, and it is the more honest number to read first.

Hazard Ratio

The ratio of the rate at which an event occurs in the treatment arm to the rate in the control arm over time. Below 1 favours treatment, and an interval crossing 1 has not demonstrated a difference.

Sample Size

How many participants a study enrolled, written as n. Small samples give unstable estimates and are the commonest reason an early positive result fails to replicate.

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